by Larry Smith
A new regional report says the economic impacts of climate change could cost Caribbean countries up to 5 per cent of annual Gross Domestic Product over the next four decades, if if no mitigating action is taken.
The report was published last month by the UN's Economic Commission on Latin America and the Caribbean. Assessments were conducted in different economic sectors across 14 countries, including tourism in the Bahamas.
Here's a brief look at the top 10 highlights:
1. By 2050, the mean annual temperature for the Caribbean is projected to be at least 1.78 degrees Centigrade more than the average temperature experienced from 1961-1990, and could be even higher. Towards the end of the century, the Bahamas is expected to be at least 2.3 degrees Centigrade hotter than the base period.
2. The region as a whole will experience overall declines in total rainfall. By 2050 the Bahamas is expected to receive 10 to 12 per cent less rainfall annually, but this may be offset by precipitation associated with tropical storms. A drastic decline in average rainfall throughout the Caribbean of 14 to 25 per cent is projected by 2090.
3. Sea level rise of 1-3 metres (3-10 feet) in the Caribbean is projected by the end of this century, with the possibility of a 5-metre increase if melting of the ice caps accelerates. An estimated sea level rise of about three feet by 2050 will erode coastlines where most tourism assets are concentrated.
4. The Bahamas will be increasingly affected by extreme weather events, including higher-intensity hurricanes and consequent flooding. The incidence of Category 4 and 5 storms in the North Atlantic (between the United States and The Bahamas) is projected to increase notably, producing estimated losses of $2.4 billion over the next few decades.
5. Billions of dollars will be lost due to the impacts of ocean acidification and sea surface temperature rise on marine ecosystems by 2050. The Bahamas has 5 per cent of the world's reefs, which are invaluable in terms of biodiversity, fisheries production and tourism potential. But over the next 40 years, virtually all reefs in the Caribbean will be critically threatened by climate change.
5. Tourism will be affected by an overall deterioration in climate attractiveness throughout the region, as well as land loss due to sea-level rise, and deterioration of the tourism product due to the ongoing decline of reefs and other ecosystems. Estimated tourism losses for the Bahamas alone are projected at $19 billion over the next few decades.
8. Treatment costs for infectious diseases are likely to rise throughout the region. Dengue fever transmission will increase threefold as rising temperatures reduce the time needed for the parasite to incubate in mosquitoes. Other diseases considered sensitive to climate change include gastroenteritis and malaria. Heat stroke-related deaths are also expected to rise.
9. The decline of coral reefs combined with the dispersal of some fish species to cooler regions, and the possible extinction of others, will have a big impact on commercial fisheries and food security within the region, as well as leading to reduced biodiversity. Fishery declines of 10-20 per cent are forecast by 2050.
10. About 15 per cent of wetlands in the Bahamas will be affected by a sea level rise of 1 metre, freshwater aquifers will be increasingly contaminated by salt, beaches will erode, and resorts, airports and roads that are too close to the coastline will be lost.
According to the report, the Caribbean's best response to climate change is the promotion of rapid and significant reductions in global carbon emissions, combined with efforts to adapt to changing local conditions while seeking to mitigate the worst effects.
Such measures would include strict land-use planning and development controls, crop diversification, improved water management, better disaster management, and insurance coverage. Adaptation and mitigation measures would cost 2-3 per cent of regional GDP compared to the cost of inaction, which the report estimated at 5 per cent of GDP.
"Climate change must be seen as a developmental issue (requiring) an internal shift towards efficient energy use, better development planning and control, improved management of resources, proactive fiscal policy and financing mechanisms that support sustainable adaptive actions," the report said.
Public education and incentives to promote a transition to a low-carbon economy, as well as the adoption of a development approach that explicitly protects the environment, were seen as key to dealing with "one of the greatest challenges of our time”.
The clear message is that decision-makers must consider the potential impacts of climate change when planning national development. The vulnerability of both air and sea transport infrastructure to climate change carries tremendous implications for the Caribbean, which is arguably the most tourism-dependent region of the world.
The report advised the Bahamas to pursue a low-carbon economy for promotional as well as cost reasons. Setting the goal of becoming a carbon-neutral destination could halt the decline in stopovers, since energy-aware and conservation-savvy tourists are more willing to stay at sustainable resorts.
However, scientists have concluded that even a dramatic reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years will be unable to prevent the consequences of a warmer world, which could threaten development prospects of small island states like the Bahamas.
Experts say the climate we end up with will be largely determined by the total amount of carbon emitted into the atmosphere before the world finally kicks the fossil fuel habit. Mid-range models suggest we have a 50-50 chance of holding warming below 2 degrees Centigrade if cumulative emissions are held to a trillion tonnes.
But, including deforestation, we have already emitted about half that, experts say, so our whole future allowance is another 500 billion tonnes, and right now the outlook is not good. Energy-related carbon emissions in 2010 were the highest in history, according to the latest estimates by the International Energy Agency.
The IEA has calculated that if the world is to escape the most damaging effects of global warming, annual energy-related emissions should be no more than 32 billion tonnes by 2020. This means that over the next 10 years, emissions must rise less in total than they did between 2009 and 2010.
In other words, the world has already moved very close to the level of emissions that should not be reached until 2020 if dangerous warming is to be avoided. Scientists have warned that unless emissions are significantly curtailed, 4 degrees of warming is possible this century. This would have major implications for human societies.
As the World Wildlife Fund recently put it, "We are using up too much of the remaining global carbon budget that’s collectively owned by the people all around the world. Once that budget is used up, it will be impossible to limit global warming to 1.5 ̊C above pre-industrial levels.
"Keeping global warming to this level will be the result of deep cuts in emissions, which are a side-effect of smart innovation, rapid modernization and sustainable development in the race to the low-carbon future that has only just begun."
According to scientific estimates, the financial and non-financial costs of global warming above 1.5 or 2 ̊C and the resulting climate impacts far outweigh the costs of making the low-carbon transformation we need.
2. The region as a whole will experience overall declines in total rainfall. By 2050 the Bahamas is expected to receive 10 to 12 per cent less rainfall annually, but this may be offset by precipitation associated with tropical storms. A drastic decline in average rainfall throughout the Caribbean of 14 to 25 per cent is projected by 2090.
3. Sea level rise of 1-3 metres (3-10 feet) in the Caribbean is projected by the end of this century, with the possibility of a 5-metre increase if melting of the ice caps accelerates. An estimated sea level rise of about three feet by 2050 will erode coastlines where most tourism assets are concentrated.
4. The Bahamas will be increasingly affected by extreme weather events, including higher-intensity hurricanes and consequent flooding. The incidence of Category 4 and 5 storms in the North Atlantic (between the United States and The Bahamas) is projected to increase notably, producing estimated losses of $2.4 billion over the next few decades.
5. Billions of dollars will be lost due to the impacts of ocean acidification and sea surface temperature rise on marine ecosystems by 2050. The Bahamas has 5 per cent of the world's reefs, which are invaluable in terms of biodiversity, fisheries production and tourism potential. But over the next 40 years, virtually all reefs in the Caribbean will be critically threatened by climate change.
5. Tourism will be affected by an overall deterioration in climate attractiveness throughout the region, as well as land loss due to sea-level rise, and deterioration of the tourism product due to the ongoing decline of reefs and other ecosystems. Estimated tourism losses for the Bahamas alone are projected at $19 billion over the next few decades.
8. Treatment costs for infectious diseases are likely to rise throughout the region. Dengue fever transmission will increase threefold as rising temperatures reduce the time needed for the parasite to incubate in mosquitoes. Other diseases considered sensitive to climate change include gastroenteritis and malaria. Heat stroke-related deaths are also expected to rise.
9. The decline of coral reefs combined with the dispersal of some fish species to cooler regions, and the possible extinction of others, will have a big impact on commercial fisheries and food security within the region, as well as leading to reduced biodiversity. Fishery declines of 10-20 per cent are forecast by 2050.
10. About 15 per cent of wetlands in the Bahamas will be affected by a sea level rise of 1 metre, freshwater aquifers will be increasingly contaminated by salt, beaches will erode, and resorts, airports and roads that are too close to the coastline will be lost.
According to the report, the Caribbean's best response to climate change is the promotion of rapid and significant reductions in global carbon emissions, combined with efforts to adapt to changing local conditions while seeking to mitigate the worst effects.
Such measures would include strict land-use planning and development controls, crop diversification, improved water management, better disaster management, and insurance coverage. Adaptation and mitigation measures would cost 2-3 per cent of regional GDP compared to the cost of inaction, which the report estimated at 5 per cent of GDP.
"Climate change must be seen as a developmental issue (requiring) an internal shift towards efficient energy use, better development planning and control, improved management of resources, proactive fiscal policy and financing mechanisms that support sustainable adaptive actions," the report said.
Public education and incentives to promote a transition to a low-carbon economy, as well as the adoption of a development approach that explicitly protects the environment, were seen as key to dealing with "one of the greatest challenges of our time”.
The clear message is that decision-makers must consider the potential impacts of climate change when planning national development. The vulnerability of both air and sea transport infrastructure to climate change carries tremendous implications for the Caribbean, which is arguably the most tourism-dependent region of the world.
The report advised the Bahamas to pursue a low-carbon economy for promotional as well as cost reasons. Setting the goal of becoming a carbon-neutral destination could halt the decline in stopovers, since energy-aware and conservation-savvy tourists are more willing to stay at sustainable resorts.
However, scientists have concluded that even a dramatic reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years will be unable to prevent the consequences of a warmer world, which could threaten development prospects of small island states like the Bahamas.
Experts say the climate we end up with will be largely determined by the total amount of carbon emitted into the atmosphere before the world finally kicks the fossil fuel habit. Mid-range models suggest we have a 50-50 chance of holding warming below 2 degrees Centigrade if cumulative emissions are held to a trillion tonnes.
But, including deforestation, we have already emitted about half that, experts say, so our whole future allowance is another 500 billion tonnes, and right now the outlook is not good. Energy-related carbon emissions in 2010 were the highest in history, according to the latest estimates by the International Energy Agency.
The IEA has calculated that if the world is to escape the most damaging effects of global warming, annual energy-related emissions should be no more than 32 billion tonnes by 2020. This means that over the next 10 years, emissions must rise less in total than they did between 2009 and 2010.
In other words, the world has already moved very close to the level of emissions that should not be reached until 2020 if dangerous warming is to be avoided. Scientists have warned that unless emissions are significantly curtailed, 4 degrees of warming is possible this century. This would have major implications for human societies.
As the World Wildlife Fund recently put it, "We are using up too much of the remaining global carbon budget that’s collectively owned by the people all around the world. Once that budget is used up, it will be impossible to limit global warming to 1.5 ̊C above pre-industrial levels.
"Keeping global warming to this level will be the result of deep cuts in emissions, which are a side-effect of smart innovation, rapid modernization and sustainable development in the race to the low-carbon future that has only just begun."
According to scientific estimates, the financial and non-financial costs of global warming above 1.5 or 2 ̊C and the resulting climate impacts far outweigh the costs of making the low-carbon transformation we need.
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